I count on Mark Carney to remain a climate leader
A Shot at Forming the Next Government
Mark Carney has long hovered at the edge of Liberal politics, ever since his high-profile return to Canada in 2020 with advisory roles on climate and economic recovery. His keynote speech at the 2021 Liberal convention, in which he praised Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and called for bold climate action, was widely seen as a political trial balloon. Earlier speculation about a 2019 run had already signalled his growing alignment with the party, positioning him as a credible future leadership contender.
More recently, rumours swirled that Carney was about to be appointed Minister of Finance, replacing Chrystia Freeland to handle the escalating U.S. tariff crisis. Freeland’s exit intensified pressure to replace Trudeau, ultimately opening the door for Carney to run for party leadership.
Now, Mark Carney has won the Liberal leadership and become the new Prime Minister of Canada. He has turned the Liberal Party’s fortunes around and now has a real shot at forming the next government. Much of this rebound is driven by new threats to Canadian sovereignty and the economy from Donald Trump. But it also reflects Carney’s appeal: a steady, globally respected economic leader who marries fiscal discipline with progressive values on climate and social issues.
In recent weeks, the Liberals have seen a notable rebound in the polls, reversing a long decline. Carney has injected credibility and gravitas into the party’s image. His reputation as a serious, pragmatic thinker with international experience is resonating with Liberals fatigued by Trudeau but also with fiscally cautious progressives and centrists across the political spectrum. Appointed by Stephen Harper as Governor of the Bank of Canada in 2008, Carney helped steer Canada through the global financial crisis. Even Harper’s Conservatives once held him up as a symbol of sound financial management. With an election call expected this weekend, the odds of a Carney victory are rising.
Carney is a Climate Leader
I’ve followed Carney closely since his departure from the Bank of England, particularly in his role as a global climate leader. As UN Special Envoy for Climate Action and Finance, he played a central role in mobilizing private capital to meet climate goals. He helped launch the Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero which united major financial institutions around the goal of net-zero emissions. He consistently advocated for carbon pricing, clearer climate disclosures, and sustainable investment. His influence helped shift the global climate conversation from government policy to the role of financial markets in driving the transition to a low-carbon economy.
The carbon tax, though politically fraught, remains a sound policy. It penalizes large emitters, rewards green spending, and redistributes revenue to lower-income Canadians. Unfortunately, Pierre Poilievre successfully weaponized the carbon tax, turning it into the central ballot-box question. Though originally a conservative idea, the tax became a symbol of Liberal overreach. Poilievre branded it as a tax grab, despite its revenue-neutral design. The tax isn’t meant to fill government coffers—it’s meant to shift behaviour. Most of the revenue is returned to households through rebates, making it more of an economic signal than a tax.
For a time, Poilievre’s attacks worked. He soared in the polls, capitalizing on inflation and Trudeau fatigue. By early 2025, he was poised to crush the Liberals in the next election.
That changed when Mark Carney became Prime Minister. One of his first actions was to eliminate the consumer carbon tax. It was disappointing, but not surprising. The move immediately undercut Poilievre’s central message, sending him scrambling and plummeting in the polls. With Trump looming and economic tensions high, Carney prioritized political survival and economic stability.
What’s Next for Climate Policy?
I asked my prospective Conservative MP for Poilievre’s climate strategy. He replied that it involved innovation and, catch this, oil production. Nothing about reducing carbon emissions. I am no longer clear, however, on the Liberal climate strategy.
Scrapping the carbon tax may have been politically necessary. Still, I’m counting on Carney to remain the climate leader he’s shown himself to be. While he must focus for now on securing an election win and countering the Trump threat, climate remains the more important issue. I’m watching his messaging closely. He promises to fight U.S. tariffs, but I suggest that tariffs could become part of a short-term climate strategy, a chance to add remission reduction guarantees to outdated free trade agreements.
I’m also wary of his talk of megaprojects, which seem tied to resource extraction. That path leads to more emissions. I assume Carney will keep his climate policy close to the vest for now, avoiding distractions during the campaign. But I also expect him to return, after the election, to the climate leadership the world knows him for. In the long-term, climate remains the more important issue.